- - What happens if Duke wins ACC championship? CFP chaos ensues

Austin Curtright, USA TODAY NETWORKDecember 6, 2025 at 3:03 AM

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What happens if Duke wins ACC championship? CFP chaos ensues

Duke football has the chance to cause chaos in the College Football Playoff race — and maybe even put itself in position for a berth in the 12-team field.

That's contingent on the Blue Devils upsetting No. 16 Virginia (No. 17 CFP) in the ACC championship game, which would make result in Duke winning a Power Four conference title with five losses on the year.

REQUIRED READING: How did 5-loss Duke football make ACC title game? How Blue Devils made it

Duke lost three of its four nonconference games this season, falling to Illinois, Tulane and UConn. However, the Blue Devils went 6-2 in conference play, tied with Miami, Georgia Tech, SMU and Pitt in the ACC standings. Duke reached the conference title game due to tiebreakers after California upset SMU Cal in the regular season finale.

A three-loss team has never made the CFP, let alone one with five losses. While it might be a long shot, Duke is looking to break that trend against Virginia.

Here's a look at how the College Football Playoff may shake up if Duke is able to beat Virginia on Saturday, Dec. 6:

1 / 8James Madison still has CFP chance. See how the Dukes won the Sun BeltBraeden Wisloski #10 of the James Madison Dukes celebrates with teammate Jobi Malary #28 after a touchdown against against the Troy Trojans during the second quarter of the game at Bridgeforth Stadium on December 05, 2025 in Harrisonburg, Virginia.What happens if Duke wins the ACC championship?

In college football terms: chaos.

Should Duke win, the CFP selection committee will have to let in one of the following teams: a five-loss Duke squad that entered conference championship weekend unranked by any major poll (including the CFP) or 25th-ranked Sun Belt champion James Madison, which would mark the first time two non-Power Four teams made the playoff.

The CFP's current format admits the five highest-ranked conference champions and seven at-large teams. No. 1 Ohio State or No. 2 Indiana will claim the Big Ten title; No. 3 Georgia or No. 9 Alabama will claim the SEC; and No. 4 Texas Tech or No. 11 BYU will claim the Big 12.

Tulane, ranked 20th in the penultimate CFP rankings, will almost assuredly receive one of those five bids after defeating North Texas 34-21 in the American championship game (due to the Green Wave being ranked higher than James Madison entering conference championship weekend).

REQUIRED READING: Tulane vs North Texas highlights: Green Wave win American championship

A Duke win would be the worst-case scenario for the ACC, especially as No. 12 Miami is on the outside of the CFP bracket and failed to reach the title game despite having three more wins than the Blue Devils. The Hurricanes also beat Notre Dame in the regular season opener this season, and the Fighting Irish are currently in the field at No. 10.

Of course, all the aforementioned chaos could be avoided in the simple case that Virginia wins on Dec. 6. If that was the case, then the Cavaliers would earn a CFP bid as one of the five highest-ranked champions after beating a team it has already bested this year: The Cavaliers downed Duke 34-17 on Nov. 15.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What happens if Duke wins ACC championship? CFP chaos ensues

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