Gina Hinojosa closes gap on Texas Gov. Greg Abbott in new poll

Mateo Rosiles, USA TODAY NETWORKWed, July 29, 2026 at 1:33 PM UTC

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The Texas Senate race isn't the only one heating up as the Democratic gubernatorial candidate closes the gap on the sitting Republican governor.

A July 28 poll from the Texas Public Opinion Research showed Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa trailing Republican Gov. Greg Abbott by 3 percentage points — just outside the poll's margin of error.

The poll was conducted from July 15-17, polling 1,048 likely Texas voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points — meaning the true result for either candidate could be up to 3.4 points higher or lower than the poll shows. It found Abbott leading Hinojosa 45% to 42% with 10% of voters being undecided.

Here's a deeper look into the polling for the Texas gubernatorial race as well as the state's attorney general race.

Gov. Abbott's lead over Hinojosa narrows in new Texas poll

This new TPOR poll showed that Hinojosa is closing the 7-percentage-point gap previous polls had between the two candidates.

A New York Times poll released June 30 showed Abbott leading Hinojosa 51% to 44%. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released June 22 showed Abbott ahead, 47% to 40%, the same seven-point margin.

The gap narrowed in spring, with a May 29 poll from the TPOR showing Abbott leading 46% to 41% with 9% undecided — a 5-point lead that matched TPOR's April poll, which had Abbott leading 48% to 43%. An April UT/Texas Politics Project poll put Abbott ahead by 6 points, 44% to 38%.

Looking more deeply at the July TPOR, it showed Hinojosa leading among independents, moderates, Black and Latino voters, while Abbott leads among college-educated and white voters.

In a statement, Hinojosa said the new polling data shows Texans are ready for change.

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"My plan is simple: save public schools, put money in your pocket, and end the Greg Abbott Corruption Tax,” Hinojosa said. “While Abbott still focuses on lining the pockets of his billionaire buddies and data center donors, I’m traveling the state hearing from Republicans, Independent and Democrats that are ready to rebuild the American Dream in Texas with an economy that works for the people, strong neighborhood schools, and safe communities.”

Who will replace Ken Paxton? Texas attorney general race is a dead heat

Democrats are also making headway in replacing Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton with their own candidate, as a new July poll showed the race is almost tied.

The first post-runoff poll from TPOR in May showed Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton leading Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson 44% to 39%, with 13% still undecided. A June UT/Texas Politics Project poll held the same five-point margin, but both candidates lost ground.

However, the new TPOR July poll shows Middleton leading Johnson by 1 point — 39% to 38% — with 18% still undecided.

The polling data show Johnson leads among the same voter blocs Hinojosa leads; Middleton leads the same blocs as Abbott.

Johnson told USA TODAY that polling data show Texans want to see a change in the state's priorities.

"Costs are rising and corruption is rampant, while personal freedoms contract and consumers feel preyed upon. The response from the other side is more culture-war noise. That might have worked in past elections. It won’t this time around," Johnson said. "Voters will make clear this fall that they are done with an attorney general who uses the office as a political tool. They want one that works for them."

Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Gina Hinojosa closes gap on Texas Gov. Greg Abbott in new poll

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