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Euro zone consumers take benign view on inflation surge, ECB survey shows

Euro zone consumers take benign view on inflation surge, ECB survey shows

ReutersMon, June 1, 2026 at 8:09 AM UTC

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1 / 0People shop at a local market in NantesPeople shop at a local market in Nantes, France, April 3, 2026. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe

FRANKFURT, June 1 (Reuters) - Euro zone consumers kept steady or lowered their inflation expectations in April, a hopeful sign for policymakers that ‌crucial medium-term price bets are not signalling any oversized shift away ‌from the target, an ECB survey showed on Monday.

Inflation soared to 3% in April on ​higher oil prices, well above the ECB's 2% target, and some policymakers had expressed concern that household views are starting to move too far away from target, potentially signalling an unanchoring of policy-relevant expectations.

However, the April edition of the ECB's ‌monthly consumer survey showed ⁠a more benign trend, as expectations one year ahead held steady at 4.0% while for three years out, they eased ⁠to 2.9% from 3.0%.

The survey, an important input into policy deliberations at the June 11 meeting, also showed expectations five years ahead unchanged at 2.4%.

"Respondents in lower-income ​quintiles continued ​to report on average slightly higher ​inflation perceptions and expectations," the ECB ‌said. "Younger respondents continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents."

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The survey is unlikely to move market expectations for the near term as policymakers have extensively telegraphed a 25-basis-point hike in the bank's 2% deposit rate in June.

But the data may temper bets for follow-up moves as they ‌suggest no need for rapid policy tightening like ​in 2022, when prices ran away, eventually ​hitting double-digit territory.

This is partly ​because expectations for economic growth became more negative, the survey ‌showed, with consumers anticipating a 2.2% ​economic contraction in the ​year ahead and they also curbed their income growth bets to 0.8% from 1.2%.

Fresh euro zone inflation data is due on Tuesday and ​economists polled by Reuters ‌see the rate rising to 3.2%. Price growth could keep accelerating ​in the coming months and may peak closer to 4%.

(Reporting by ​Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Alexandra Hudson)

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